Never Allies

Hosting Chinese dissidents, trading arms to Taiwan, these are just some of the highlights this week which demonstrate the growing tension between Sino-U.S. relations. Many suspect Washington's involvement is a follow-up of the Bo Xilai scandal, which originated when his chief aid Wang Lijun sought refuge in a U.S. embassy. However, this is far from an individual incident. In the case of arms trade to Taiwan, the most recent transactions were an arms sales package in 2008, with an estimated worth of over $6 billion, followed by another $6 billion deal in 2010.Throughout the history of arms trade with Taiwan, the U.S. government also demonstrates the tendency to trade more in even numbered years instead of odd numbered years, namely the years with midterm elections. In election years, Republicans and Democrats alike take a tougher stance on foreign policies towards China. The main reason is catering to public opinion. The latest Gallup poll of US-China ties show only 13% of U.S. adults see China as an ally, lower than the 17% who demonstrate unfriendly views towards China, and far less than the 63% majority view of seeing China as friendly but not as an ally. Another Gallup poll shows 83% percent of Americans favor Japan, and 75% favor India, while only 41% favor China. U.S. is more likely to form an alliance with Japan, South Korea, and even Vietnam over China. What is the reason behind U.S. foreign policy of distancing China? Is the clash of ideology the reason which stands in the way of a closer alliance or an excuse to explain why China and the U.S. may never become true allies?

Economic Policy, Foreign Policy

Foreign holdings of US debt

Charts from CBO's January 2012 Budget and Economic Outlook

View more presentations from Congressional Budget Office

President Obama Visits Afghanistan

I found this article to be a timely and interesting example of presidential image in foreign affairs — "Obama: Afghan Pact Signals Goal 'Is Within Reach'". The president acted in his role as commander-in-chief by personally visiting the troops and speaking of his hope for the future. I think it especially interesting that he chose to frame his plan for the future in terms of national security, avoiding the idea of imperialism or of imposition of democratic ideals in Afghanistan. After the experience in Iraq, many Americans are much less sympathetic to the idea of spreading American ideals in foreign countries, but they still value national security. President Obama said, "Our goal is not to build a country in America’s image, or to eradicate every vestige of the Taliban. These objectives would require many more years, many more dollars, and most importantly, many more American lives. Our goal is to destroy al-Qaeda, and we are on a path to do exactly that."

Practice Final

I. Identifications. Explain the meaning and significance of 12 of the 15 following items (4 points each).Each answer should be a brief paragraph. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. National Security Act of 1947
2. Progressive taxes
3. Stare decisis
4. Federal Register
5. Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
6. Cloture
7. Exclusionary rule
8. Unfunded mandate
9. Bill of attainder
10. Entitlements
11. Party identification
12. Thirteenth Amendment
13. Statutes
14. Recess appointments
15. "Oppo"

II. Short answers. Answer 3 of 4 (6 points each). Each answer should be a brief paragraph.

1. Explain the difference between unilateralism and multilateralism in foreign policy.
2. Briefly explain: “I go further, and affirm that bills of rights, in the sense and to the extent in which they are contended for, are not only unnecessary in the proposed Constitution, but would even be dangerous.”
3. Briefly explain: “Our written laws are often hard to understand, but everyone can read them, whereas nothing could be more obscure and out of research of the common man than a law founded on precedent.”
4. Does the prohibition against double jeopardy prevent the federal government from prosecuting even after an acquittal in a state criminal case?  Explain.

III. General Essays. Answer 2 of 3 (17 points each). Each answer should take 3-4 small bluebook pages.

1. How can federalism foster deliberation and active citizenship?
2. The unemployment rate remains over 8 percent. Is the president responsible? In your answer, consider the structure of federal economic policymaking.
3. See this article.  Explain how it illustrates basic features of the nation’s civic culture.

IV. Bonus questions (one point each) Very briefly identify the following:

• Susana Martinez
• Paul Ryan
• Bobby Jindal
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers
• Francis J. LaBelle

Economic Policy

CBO Data

Where the data are pointing

Prop. 29: Cigarette Tax in California

Proposition 29 plans to increase the tax on a pack of cigarettes in California by a dollar to use the tax-generated revenue on cancer research.

David F. Veneziano of the San Fransisco Chronicle supports Prop. 29 because he feels that increasing the price of tobacco would reduce the number of people consuming it, and thus reduce smoking. He feels that it is important to spend on cancer research because of its potential to save lives.

This editorial from the LA Times opposes Prop. 29 arguing that the National Institute of Health (NIH) already spends enough on cancer research. In addition California has more pressing areas to spend on, such as: retaining K-12 teachers, keeping parks open, public college education, health care for the infirm, and medical care for the poor.  

Birth rates and class divides

An interesting, and different, perspective on the issue of birth rates affecting government decisions and social structure: http://alvinology.com/2012/04/03/singapores-fertility-rate-is-now-the-lowest-in-the-world-will-singapore-born-singaporeans-become-extinct-soon/

This article cites the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) website, showing that 2012 estimates place Singapore as the country with the lowest fertility rate in the world. Singapore averages at 0.78 children born per woman. This article also cites the CIA website and shows that Singapore has the sixth highest net migration rate (the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country within a year per 1,000 persons) in the world. This is a big issue, and it is creating a great class divide in Singapore. In order to compensate for a decreasing labor force, the government is allowing vast inflows of foreign workers – changing Singapore’s social landscape. People worry, understandably, that the amount of “Singaporean” Singaporeans in Singapore is quickly dwindling with respect to the total population. Just found it interesting that in another part of the world, class divides are being created due to sharp declines in the fertility rate – and there’s really not much the government can do to target the root of this problem.

American Domestic Policy

Bloomberg reports:


The underlying data on age

Data on births outside marriage

Health

• Medicare for seniors, disabled people, and kidney patients
• Medicaid (Medi-Cal in California)
• White House summary of health bill.
• Report on financial effects
• Vaccine court

Social Welfare

• Social Security
• TANF
• Births ou

Education

• Education Stats on spending and performance (who's on top?)
• Creationism

Pell grants, student loans, the POTUS, Jimmy Fallon, and The Roots. It's pretty funny, and possibly relevant to students too. The video is of "the Barack-ness monster" appearing on late night TV to talk about his plan to keep the interest rates on stafford student loans low-- and he does it in an interesting way.

Entitlement spending compared to defense spending

I came across this chart, which I found quite interesting:

http://www.heritage.org/budgetchartbook/defense-entitlement-spending

I was just wondering how spending on entitlements, such as Social Security, has interacted with spending on military defense. I also researched mandatory and discretionary spending; do these concepts factor into the relationship the graph portrays?

Bureaucracy and the Administrative State

IN RESPONSE TO VIKRANT'S QUESTION

Public Sector Unions

• Largest is AFSCME
• Largest federal is AFGE
• Others
• Political role

Regulation

• Administrative rules
• Instructions for IRS Form 1
• Growth of regulation:

Organizational Culture and Organizational Complexity

• The special case of the military
• DHS Organization Chart

The Citizen's Perspective

• A spaghetti chart
• Services for kids on the spectrum

An example of political participation on the Internet

Internet has changed the public's political participation. On the official website of the White House, an online program, "We the People-- Your Voice in Our Government" asks people's petitions online. According to the website, "the idea of petitioning the White House or the government isn’t new, but this online platform is." People can ask for petition, and the related government departments response to the petitions. People can also share the responses on Twitter and Facebook.

Judiciary, II

C-SPAN documentary on the court (start at 36:40)

Oyez: audio and transcript of oral argument

• Edwards v. Aguillard
•  The Health Care Cases

The current court

Followup on the Courts

In class, we discussed whether the prohibition of double jeopardy forbids federal and state authorities from prosecuting the same crime.  This essay in FindLaw explains that it does not:

In a federal system, different units of government may have different interests to serve in the definition of crimes and the enforcement of their laws, and where the different units have overlapping jurisdictions a person may engage in conduct that will violate the laws of more than one unit. 50 Although the Court had long accepted in dictum the principle that prosecution by two governments of the same defendant for the same conduct would not constitute double jeopardy, 51 it was not until United States v. Lanza 52 that the conviction in federal court of a person previously convicted in a state court for performing the same acts was sustained. ''We have here two sovereignties, deriving power from different sources, capable of dealing with the same subject-matter within the same territory . . . Each government in determining what shall be an offense against its peace and dignity is exercising its own sovereignty, not that of the other.'' 53 

Look here for more information about federal prisons.

Judiciary, I

A statute is act of a legislature (whether Congress or a state legislature) that declares, forbids, or commands something; a specific law.  Some references:

• Concise guide to federal statutes.
• Statutes at Large
• US Code
• State statutes
• National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws

After Congress passes law, the bureaucracy drafts rules:

• Federal Register
• Code of Federal Regulations

Then the courts may act:

• The Structure
• Guide to Supreme Court decisions
• State courts

The system in practice:

"The Lecture" from Anatomy of a Murder (start at 20:00). They show this scene in law schools.

C-SPAN documentary on the court (start at 36:40)

Texts from Hillary

Please excuse the lack of relevance to the course, but I felt obligated to share one of the funniest pieces of political humor I've ever come across.

I present to you all the "Texts from Hillary" Tumblr:

http://textsfromhillaryclinton.tumblr.com/

Presidency, II

• Federalist 70:  unity and energy
• Federalist 71:  the four-year term
• Federalist 73: veto

Tocqueville, p. 126: "If the Union’s existence were constantly menaced, and if its great interests were continually interwoven with those of other powerful nations, one would see the prestige of the executive growing, because of what was expected from it and of what it did."

Question on Responsibility and the Single Executive

As I read Federalist Paper #70, I wondered whether our government today follows Hamilton's plan. He wrote, "one of the weightiest objections to a plurality in the executive...is that it tends to conceal faults and destroy responsibility." Having a single executive eliminates the "difficulty of detection" problem when something goes wrong in the executive office. Today, however, the increased size and number of departments and agencies seem to create the problem that the Founders tried to avoid by having a single executive. The complexity of the system makes it more difficult to determine who is really responsible for various issues. Although the president receives blame or praise for nearly everything that affects American citizens and is indeed responsible for the executive branch, I wonder whether the size of this branch of government could potentially allow a president to escape responsibility? Or perhaps it prevents us from holding others accountable who should be.

The Presidency I

Prologue:  The President at Easter

Congressional powers in Article I

• Presidential powers in Article II
• Prerogative power and the oath
• Reprieves and pardons
• Treaties
• Appointments and recess appointments

Washington

FDR



LBJ orders pants.

Hot Mic Moment

“This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.” A hot mike was recording when President Obama said this to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in South Korea recently. Republicans have taken the comment as a way to mobilize voters, warning them of what Obama might do without reelection pressure. The incident begs a couple questions:

• In what ways do presidents usually, like the article claims, "become more ambitious with their agendas" in their second terms?
• Do gaffes and slips like this one usually affect public perception of officials , or does it often simply blow over?
• Could this comment and his earlier "spread the wealth around" comment spell real trouble for Obama?

Earmarks

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/house-gop-earmarks_n_1396368.html?ref=politics 

The reading this week briefly discussed the use of earmarks in bills. The way the text talked about the use of earmarks reflected the generally negative feeling in America towards their use. Many Americans view earmarks as wasteful government spending. Thus, in 2011, the Senate appropriations committee placed a two-year moratorium on earmarks.

But, are they actually harmful? According to CBSNews, earmarks count for less than a ½ a percent of the entire Congressional budget. Moreover, many of them target specific communities in need. President Obama has both condemned their use and yet approved legislation containing them. House Speaker Boehner, who was a strong proponent of the initial ban, has said he would consider reforms that reintroduce earmarks.

The Huffington Post article by Richard Cowan discusses the support for ending the ban on earmarks. One of the main reasons he cites is how earmarks increase the ability to pass legislation; they are used like tools in a bargain. Congressmen and women are willing to vote for bills they don’t necessarily favor if they can set funds aside for a certain project they care more about. The article however, doesn’t say whether earmarks are like riders – that they don’t need to be relevant to the bill. The fact that most earmarks go unnoticed when the bills are passed understandably leaves constituents with an uneasy feeling. That is the same feeling you might get when hearing John Conyers discuss how he votes on bills.

Congress, II

Congress and the New Media

• House Hub and House homepage
• Senate Hub and Senate homepage

Motives of members

• Reelection
• Power
• Policy

Federalist 57:

[The] House of Representatives is so constituted as to support in the members an habitual recollection of their dependence on the people. Before the sentiments impressed on their minds by the mode of their elevation can be effaced by the exercise of power, they will be compelled to anticipate the moment when their power is to cease, when their exercise of it is to be reviewed, and when they must descend to the level from which they were raised; there forever to remain unless a faithful discharge of their trust shall have established their title to a renewal of it. I will add, as a fifth circumstance in the situation of the House of Representatives, restraining them from oppressive measures, that they can make no law which will not have its full operation on themselves and their friends, as well as on the great mass of the society.

Federalist 63 on continuity and the Senate:

Yet however requisite a sense of national character may be, it is evident that it can never be sufficiently possessed by a numerous and changeable body. It can only be found in a number so small that a sensible degree of the praise and blame of public measures may be the portion of each individual; or in an assembly so durably invested with public trust, that the pride and consequence of its members may be sensibly incorporated with the reputation and prosperity of the community.

Tocqueville:

When you enter the House of Representatives in Washington, you feel yourself struck by the vulgar aspect of this great assembly. Often the eye seeks in vain for a celebrated man within it. Almost all its members are obscure persons, whose name furnishes no image to one’s thought. They are, for the most part, village attorneys, or those in trade. . . . In a country where instruction is almost universally widespread, it is said that the people’s representatives do not always know how to write correctly.

Life on the Hill

Congressional powers in Article I

Congress, I

The official version

A diagram

Introducing a bill:

Procedure


The House floor -- and CMC!

Mass Media II

Tocqueville on the influence of the media (p. 186):

It makes political life circulate in every corner of that vast land. Its eyes are never shut, and it lays bare the secret shifts of politics, forcing public figures in turn to appear before the tribune of public opinion. The press rallies public opinion around certain doctrines and gives shape to party slogans; through the press the parties, without actually meeting, listen and argue with one another.

Manipulation and oppo.
Oppo books

Trust and perceptions of bias:

• Gallup survey 
• Pew survey

Then and Now

The CBS Evening News on November 18, 1964

The CBS Evening News on March 28, 2012:

Changes in the media

• Newspapers
• Network TV News
• Cable
• Internet
• The Internet in Campaign 2010

Online

• Aggregator sites: Drudge Report and Real Clear Politics
• Original news site: Politico
• Opinion/news sites: Huffington Post and National Review Online
• Raw materials:  Buzzfeed and C-SPAN Video
• YouTube: The Macaca Moment

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - John Yoo Extended Interview Pt. 1
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Reform

1 TRILLION DOLLARS.

I saw this pretty cool video this morning which helps put things into context when we talk about our debt in the trillions of dollars, or the bailout in the trillions. Thought this was interesting.

"Air Midterm"

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper. If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications. Explain the meaning and significance of the following items. Each answer should be a brief paragraph. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

Here are examples:

• Natural rights
• Great Compromise
• Nullification
• Dual citizenship
• Social Gospel
• The Lemon Test
• Fourteenth Amendment
• Libertarians
• Astroturf lobbying
• Divided government
• “A City on a Hill”

II. Short answers. Each should be a brief paragraph.

1. Explain how basic features of our constitutional system shape PIG and PO.
2. Briefly explain: “Religion, which never intervenes directly in the government of American society, should therefore be considered as the first of their political institutions, for although it did not give them the taste for liberty, it singularly facilitates their use thereof.
3. Briefly explain: “[O]f those men who have overturned the liberties of republics, the greatest number have begun their career by paying an obsequious court to the people; commencing demagogues, and ending tyrants.”
4. What are some of the disadvantages of federalism?
5. Explain how direct democracy is still part of American politics.

III. General Essays. Each answer should take 3-4 small bluebook pages.

1.  “In republican government, the legislative authority necessarily predominates. The remedy for this inconveniency is to divide the legislature into different branches; and to render them, by different modes of election and different principles of action, as little connected with each other as the nature of their common functions and their common dependence on the society will admit.” Explain how the health care debate illustrates the meaning of this passage.
2. Explain how the Internet can both advance and hinder deliberative democracy.
3. According to Tocqueville, what are the main causes that check majority tyranny and maintain a democratic republic in the United States? Does the system work as he described it?

IV. Bonus questions (one point each) Very briefly identify the following:

• Edward R. Murrow
• Kimberly Dozier
• Shirley Sherrod
• Jim VandeHei
• Steve LaBelle

how the media can manipulate our viewpoint

The colored picture in the middle is the original picture. It is said that the one in the left is from Aljazeera,  an independent broadcaster owned by the state of Qatar and the one in the right is from Fox News. (I can't find the articles which the pictures are quoted so I don't know if they are really from Aljazeera and Fox News).

Using the picture in the left will have very different effect from using the picture in the right. The media can manipulate our viewpoint by showing us only a proportion of the original picture.

Media I

Ruckus media manual

Media Bias

Data on partisanship and news audiences

Public knowledge

Religion and US Politics (Revisited)

Though the United States of America is decidedly a "religious nation" (via http://www.pewglobal.org/2002/12/19/among-wealthy-nations/) a more recent poll conducted by the PEW Research Center suggests an increasing number of citizens are wary of the mixing between church and state. Is #secularism trending right now?

Back in 2001, when PEW first asked the question, just 12 percent of Americans complained that their politicians talked too much about religion. That number has been on the rise and, in fact, hit a record high in Wednesday’s poll. Despite the divide between party lines (Democrats, historically, have always been fairly wary of the mixing of church and state) 38 percent of Americans, including 24 percent of Republicans, now say their political leaders are excessive in their expressions of faith and prayer. Additionally more Americans than ever, 54 percent, believe churches should keep out of politics entirely (up from 43 percent in 1996).

The discrepancy between Romney and Santorum supporters is also telling: 55% of Santorum-backers think politicians don't talk enough about religion, compared to only 23% of those Republicans in favor of Mr. Romney. 

Rick Santorum is quite public regarding the influence his religion has had on his platform (via ABC News) while Mitt Romney (though socially conservative) tends to avoid discussion of his Mormonism. Though evangelicals form a considerable portion of the Republican constituency, does Mitt Romney's relative success (via RealClearPolitics) suggest Rick Santorum is "too Christian"?

Elections and Campaigns

Party in the Electorate

• Cinematic Map of Party Strength 
• Polarization and Landslide Counties 
• Party Identification by State 
• National Party Identification: history & demographics 
• Latest Party Identification Data 

The Big Picture: Electoral Context

• Redistricting and Hall of Shame 
• Forecasting presidential elections -- 2012 
• Incumbency advantage 

Campaign Finance

• Financial incumbency advantage 
• The best explanation of campaign fundraising in the history of film:

The Ground War

• Lincoln's manual for community organizing
• Obama's commandments

1. You are an Organizer.
2. Things are always great. Be positive.
3. Think with your head: be driven by your heart.
4. People will come to the campaign for Barack. They stay because of you.
5. Empower yourself and others will be empowered.
6. Respect your community and your coworkers.
7. NEVER lie.
8. The phone is your greatest tool and your best friend.
9. If it is not written down, it does not exist.
10. Campaigns are won when goals are met.
11. Have goals. Be accountable. Make others accountable.
12. “Some” is not a number, “soon” is not a time. Only hard numbers count.
13. Keep it simple.
14. Listen actively.
15. Time is the most valuable resource you have. Don’t waste it.
16. Have a back-up plan for every situation.
17. Look and act professional. You are Barack’s surrogate in your community.
18. When you’re not working, remember that the other side is.

The Air War

Third Assignment

Choose one:

1. Take part in the legislative simulation as a congressional aide, a journalist, an interest group representative, or some other “player.” Do research on your real-life counterparts, and cite the relevant literature. (For instance, if you are playing an aide, consult studies of congressional staff.) Afterward, briefly your role and analyze your activity. What were you trying to accomplish and how? What opportunities and constraints did you face? What did you learn about Congress?
2. Choose a specific interest group such as: a trade association (e.g., PhRMA), a policy group (AIPAC), a corporation (Google), or a labor union (SEIU). Pick a specific policy goal that this organization is pursuing. Why is it pursuing that goal? What resources does it bring to bear on the issue? What strategy is it using? What are the prospects for success?
3. Would the United States be better off with a multiparty system? In your answer consider the advantages and disadvantages of the two-party system. You may want to ponder Michael Eisner's thoughts in today's Los Angeles Times.
4. Pick a tossup 2012 Senate race. Why is it so close? What is your best estimate as to who will win in November?
5. Do the “How a Member Decides to Vote” exercise at the Center on Congress site. Explain your role and your voting decision. Do some research on how Congress has actually dealt with the issue and then appraise the exercise itself. Did it oversimplify or distort the story, or was it an accurate depiction?
6. Watch "We Didn't Start the Fire."  Read the lyrics.  Explain how the items in one verse relate to American political history.  Remember that the verses are in rough (though not exact) chronological order.  Also remember that the items may be is significant in more than one way. "Little Rock," for instance, played one political part in 1957, and quite another in 1992.  Not every item has a direct and serious relationship to U.S. politics, but a surprising number do.

• Essays should be typed, stapled, double-spaced, and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page. 
• Put your name on a cover sheet. Do not identify yourself on the text pages. 
• Cite your sources with endnotes, which should be in a standard style (e.g., Turabian or Chicago Manual of Style). Endnote pages do not count against the page limit. 
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you. 
• Return essays by the start of class, Wednesday, April 4. Late essays will drop a letter grade. I will grant no extensions except for illness or emergency.

Interracial Marriage - States' Rights

Obama is the son of a white mother and a black father. Before last Tuesday’s primary in Alabama and Mississippi, A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling revealed that 21% of Alabama republicans and 29% of Mississippi republicans believe interracial marriage should be illegal.

In 1967 the Supreme Court ruled in Loving v. Virginia that Virginia's anti-miscegenation statute, the Racial Integrity Act of 1924, was unconstitutional. This courts ruling struck down against interracial marriage bans that existed in 16 states including Alabama and Mississippi. However, Alabama kept the interracial marriage ban.  Alabama did not repeal the law until 2000 by referendum. 

Why did Alabama not have to repeal the law immediately?  How much power does the Federal Government have over states’ constitutions? Can the Federal Government impose amendments to state constitutions? 

Gas Policies

President Bush took a lot of heat for the Iraq War, partly because people thought the desire for oil was part of the reason for it. (The Bush administration was wise to stop calling it "Operation Iraqi Liberation")
Now, President Obama is taking a fair amount of heat for rapidly rising gas prices. Are the same people criticizing Obama now as criticized Bush then? If so, how do they explain this apparent inconsistency of opinion?

Political Parties

In our last class we studied political parties and discussed their mandates and philosophies. I found this chart on the internet which depicts the ideals of various parties and their stance on different issues.

I found the chart very useful because it concisely illustrates the differences and similarities between several political parties.
The chart broadly categorizes parties under the banners of 'Left' and 'Right' and then provides detail about their philosophies. (It's a pretty well designed infogram as well).

We often assume that a politician can be a Democrat or a Republican but this chart also explores other political philosophies as well.

Hope it Helps

A Really Basic Account of Presidential Elections

A Refresher on Primaries

Parties!

Party in Government and Party Organization

.........................Legislative............................Executive

Party in Gov..... House Dem Caucus................POTUS
........................House GOP Conference
........................Senate Dem Caucus
........................Senate GOP Conference

Party Org........DCCC, NRCC, DSCC, NRSC......DNC, RNC

Party in the Electorate

• Cinematic Map of Party Strength
• Polarization and Landslide Counties
• Party Identification by State
• National Party Identification: history & demographics
• Latest Party Identification Data

The battle for religious freedom/sex/women/the White House

The Republican primary candidates have expressed a lot of interest in female genitalia. No, I’m not talking about Rick Santorum’s seven children or Newt Gingrich’s wives. I’m talking about the debate over contraception and abortion funding. The religious right thinks the baby-killing-open-legged left is waging a war on religious freedom. The progressive left thinks the missionary-position-only right is waging a war on women’s reproductive freedoms. Either way, there’s some kind of war being waged on someone (I guess?).

This strikes me as a dangerous choice on the part of the GOP candidates. Having a strong position in this debate runs the risk of ostracizing a large population of female swing voters in the general election in an attempt to win over a majority of older republican voters in the primary. To be fair, a recent poll shows that it hasn’t helped Obama as much as expected. It also runs the risk of losing some of the youth vote.  Moreover, the overwhelming majority of Americans don’t think this is the conversation to be having.

So my question is this: what issues would you press if you were running the campaign of a GOP candidate (let’s say Romney or Santorum)? Would you continue to press the risky social issues, or go after less polarizing issues like the economy?

My advice would be to stop going after Obama on the reproductive matters. Keep talking about healthcare, but minimalize discussion on denying contraception and abortion. My reasoning: Social issues might help to win over some of the voters in the primary, but it will tarnish your chances with quite a few swing voters, which in turn affects the public’s perception of your electability. As November nears, I think electability will become more important to the same voters that you would pander to on social issues. The economy is also a viable target, but recent statistics look to be *a little bit* promising for the Obama campaign. Healthcare has been one place where Republicans have been able to argue with the president both ideologically and practically without losing potential voters because of divisive rhetoric.

I’d love to know your thoughts.

Interest Group Politics

Lobbying data

Thank You for Smoking:

Question on the motivation of voting

I am not sure if it is appropriate to post this question here but I am confused about this. Today's class reminded me of Chinese voting behaviors. I think in China, it is hard to say that civic duty leads people to vote for political campaigns. China seems to lack the voting environment like America's. Does Americans' civic duty differentiates America from other countries ?  

Opinion & Participation

Measuring Public Opinion

• Polls and Surveys: FAQs
• Nonresponse bias
• Nonattitudes (or pseudo-opinions)
• A recent survey questionnaire
• Whom do you sample?
• Question wording: the example of civil rights

A recent focus group:

Ideology

Political Socialization

Participation

• Census data on 2008 and 2010
• Historical voter turnout